中东变局的发展过程、动力与机制研究——以埃及变局为中心

The Development Process,Dynamic and Mechanism of the Middle East Upheaval:An Egypt-Centric Analysis

中东变局始料未及的发生暴露出现有中东研究所具有的＂现状偏见＂、＂精英偏见＂与＂结构偏见＂等缺陷,这些偏见对中东地区的政治发展过程、发展动力、发展机制等因素未予以应有的重视。基于此,作者尝试提供一种理解中东变局发生与发展机制的分析框架。中东变局发生之前,该地区发生了许多可见的社会运动和不可见的社会非运动,它们构成了中东变局的先导;而抗议者在抗议中体现出来的集体能动性,则是中东变局得以产生和发展的动力。抗议者之所以能发展这样一种有别于以往的政治主体性,主要是因为产生了一种政治想象,从而通过团结广泛的社会阶层形成一种能对当局进行挑战的权力。尽管中东变局已经带来了中东甚至广泛国际形势的重要变化,但其发展方向及其后果并不明确。

The unexpected emergence of the Middle East upheaval exposes several flaws in Middle East's studies,such as 'status quo bias'、'elite bias' and 'structural bias',which downplays the importance of the political development process,dynamic and mechanism in this region.In light of it,this paper attempts to provide an analytical framework for comprehending the occurrence and development of the Middle East upheaval.The authors argue that the visible social movements and indivisible social non-movements emerging in this region prior to the Middle East upheaval constituted the pioneer of the upheaval,whereas the collective agency of the protesters in the upheaval served as the dynamic.The reason why protesters possessed a kind of political subjectivity different from the past is that they generated a political imagination rallying extensive social strata,which form a challenging power to the authorities.Although the Middle East upheaval has produced significant changes in this region and the international environment at large,its development direction and consequences are still not fully identified.