南宁市稻飞虱发生发展气象条件等级预报技术研究

Occurrence and Development Meteorological Conditions Grade Prediction Technique of Rice Hopper in Nanning City

[目的]研究南宁市稻飞虱发生发展严重程度与气象条件的关系。[方法]以南宁市武鸣县为例,用SPSS软件通过对1987～2009年武鸣灯下虫量与气象因子资料进行了逐步回归分析建模,并利用模式建立了各旬稻飞虱发生发展气象条件等级预报指标。[结果]通过拟合、预报精度检验,最终得到6个旬灯下虫量模拟模式,利用模式进一步建立了3月上旬、3月中旬、7月中旬、8月上旬、8月下旬、9月下旬的稻飞虱发生发展气象条件等级预报指标,根据该指标可进行旬的稻飞虱发生发展气象条件等级预报。[结论]为稻飞虱的统防统治以及南宁市水稻增产稳产提供了参考。

[Objective] The aim was to study the relationship between occurrence and development severity degree of rice hopper in Nanning City between meteorological conditions.[Method] Based on insect numbers from the light trap and meteorological factors data from 1987 to 2009 from Wuming County of Nanning City,the stepwise regression analysis and modeling was carried out by using SPSS software,and then occurrence and development meteorological conditions grade prediction indexes of rice hopper was established.[Result] Through fitting and prediction precision test,six simulation models of insect numbers from the light trap were established,and occurrence and development meteorological conditions grade prediction indexes of rice hopper for the early March,the middle of March,the middle of July,the early August,the late August and the late September was established.The occurrence and development meteorological conditions grade prediction of rice hopper for ten days can be carried out according to the indexes.[Conclusion] The research result provides reference for the control of rice hopper as well as increasing and stabilizing yield of rice in Nanning City.