基于模糊隶属函数的大雾短时预报方法

Short-term Fog Forecasting Based on Fuzzy Membership Function

选取骆岗机场附近2010～2011年地面逐时观测气象资料,建立年际、季度、月份和短期温升通道与温降通道模糊隶属函数;根据典型大雾发生前3 h气象数据,分析湿度与能见度变化趋势;结合气温通道信息与未来湿度与能见度变化趋势预报未来3 h大雾是否发生。最后利用2006～2009年地面资料检验结果显示未来3 h大雾预报准确率为92.77%,TS评分为0.828。因此,基于模糊隶属函数大雾短时预报方法是有效的。

Selecting ground hourly observation meteorological data around Luogang Airport during 2010-2011,several fuzzy membership functions of annual,seasonal,monthly,short-term temperature increasing and deceasing channel were established;according to observation data 3 hours before fog,the humidity and visibility variation trend were analyzed;combining temperature channel information and variation trend of future humidity and visibility to predict whether the fog would happen in three hours or not.Finally,ground data during 2006-2009 showed that the fog occurrence in the next three hours predicted by the method reached an accuracy at 92.77%,TS scored 0.828.The short-term fog forecasting method based on fuzzy membership function is efficient.