中国环境库兹涅茨曲线研究进展

Research progress of the Environmental Kuznets Curve (EKC) in China

随着经济的发展,近10年来经济增长与环境质量之间的研究成为环境资源与生态经济学研究的热点问题。文章从中国实证研究和理论研究两个方面对环境库兹涅茨曲线进行分析,探讨实证和理论研究中存在的问题不足。通过系统回顾国内环境库兹涅茨曲线研究进展发现:研究区域的不同,得出的结论不一致,大多数省份出现了倒U形曲线,部分省份发现倒N型和倒U型+正U型等,而且东、中和西部的结果也不一致;研究指标的不同,得出的结论不一致,有倒U型、倒N型、倒U型+正U型和凹型等;计量模型的不同对EKC研究的结论也有所不同,运用二次多项式和对数方程进行研究所出现的EKC曲线基本都呈倒U型,而采用三次方程和多种方程结合模型则既有倒U型也出现倒N型曲线;在理论解释方面缺乏EKC曲线背后的作用机制的探索。最后还指出国内必须加强环境库兹涅茨曲线理论与方法研究,对未来环境库兹涅茨曲线研究的重点领域进行了展望。

With a booming economy in the recent years, researches on the relationships between economic growth and environmental quality have become the hot issues of economics of environmental ecology. This study analyzed the Environmental Kuznets Curve （EKC） in two ways of theoretical research and empirical research respectively, and discussed their shortcomings. By systematically reviewing the recent domestic development of EKC, we found that different study areas brought out different conclusions. EKC in most provinces showed as inverted-U shapes, while in other provinces showed as inverted-N shapes and inverted-U ~ straight U shapes. The results in the West, the Midland and the East were also different from each other. Also, the studying targets and econometric model would affect the research conclusion on EKC. Basically, the EKC demonstrated as inverted-U by using quadratic polynomial and logarithmic equation. But there were both inverted-U and inverted-N curves by integrating cubic equations and many equations. It was lock of exploring the interior effect mechanism of EKC in theoretical side. At the end, important issues of further research and exploration on environmental EKC were pointed out.