印度金融发展规模、结构、效率与经济增长关系研究——基于该国金融改革20年的数据分析

Empirical Study of Relationship Between Indian Financial scale Development、structure、efficiency and the Economics Growth——Based on the Data Analysis of 20 Years India Financial Reform

文章运用格兰杰因果检验法对印度金融改革后的近20年时间里金融发展与经济增长之间因果关系进行检验,并在此基础上建立状态空间的变参数模型,对两者间相互关系进一步给予动态分析,结果表明:金融改革后的印度金融规模及结构变化与经济增长之间相互影响、相互作用,金融效率增长对经济增长有一定的影响,但经济增长对金融效率提升的促进作用不明显。同时,在本国金融改革、政策外部调控的影响作用下,印度金融发展与经济增长之间的这种内在联系也呈现出不同的阶段性特点。

This paper uses Granger causality tests vertify the causal relationship between financial development and economic growth in 20 years or so after the Indian Financial Reform, then establishes a State space model on this base , and makes dynamic analysis on the relationship. The results show that ： after the reform , indian financial scale and the structure changes interact the economic growth , and financial efficiency also has influenced the growth, but the acceleration of the growth to the promotion of financial efficiency is not obvious. Meanwhile, with the effect of the domestic financial reform and the external macro contrl, there present different periodic features in the inner link of indian financial development and the economic growth..