中国制造业增加值出口与中美贸易失衡

The Export of Value Added in Chinese Manufacturing and China-US Trade Imbalance

文章从增加值贸易入手,利用1995-2009年的国际投入产出表数据,对中国制造业行业出口规模和中美贸易失衡程度进行了分年度、分技术类别测算,并与传统贸易统计方法做了对比。研究表明,传统的总量贸易统计方法夸大了中国制造业出口规模和中美贸易失衡程度,运用增加值贸易方法核算的中国制造业出口规模和中美贸易失衡程度大幅度减小,平均分别减小50%和46%,其中,中高和高技术行业减小幅度更大。

From the perspective of trade in value added, this paper cal- culates the export scale and China-US trade imbalance in Chinese manufac- turing sector by using the data of international input-output table from 1995 to 2009, and compares the calculation results with the traditional trade sta- tistics. It shows that the traditional statistical method with regard to total export exaggerates Chinese export scale and China-US trade imbalance; the method of trade in value added leads to a reduction in the export scale and China US trade imbalance by 50% and 46% in average respectively, espe- cially in medium-high-technology and high-technology industries.