金融开放会增加中国宏观经济不稳定吗

Does Financial Openness Increase Macroeconomic Instability?

金融开放与宏观经济不稳定之间存在必然联系吗?本文构建了开放经济条件下包含金融开放度和利率调整时滞的新凯恩斯主义DSGE模型,通过MATLAB随机数值模拟分析了金融开放对宏观经济稳定的影响。研究结果表明,金融开放通过影响各国之间经济冲击的传导,而影响宏观经济稳定。金融开放度的增加和利率调整时滞的缩小有利于减少中国技术冲击产生的福利损失,但会增加国外产出冲击和利率冲击给中国造成的福利损失。根据目前中国经济所处的发展阶段和国际经济形势的复杂多变,中国应该坚持适度、灵活的金融开放策略,并且坚持国内利率市场化改革。

Is financial openness closed related with macroeconomic instability? This paper builds a New Keynesian DSGE model with financial openness and interest rate adjustment lag parameters under open economy,which is used to analyze the influence of financial openness and interest rate adjustment lag on macroeconomic stability combined with the method of MATLAB stochastic simulation.It shows that financial openness affects the macroeconomic stability through changing the transfer channels of economic shocks among different countries.The results show that total welfare increases responded to the domestic technology shock if financial openness rises and interest rate adjustment lag declines.However,the welfare decreases responded to the foreign productivity shock and interest rate shock with the same conditions.Because of Chinese current status of economic development and complex international condition,China should hold the modest and flexible financial openness policy.It should also promote the market reform of interest rate.