环境援助的减污效应——理论和基于1982-2008年中国数据的实证分析

Pollution-reducing Effects of Environmental Aid:Theory and Empirical Analysis Based on Data in China through 1982-2008

本文考察环境援助对污染物排放影响的作用机制及其在中国的实际减污效果。建立环境援助减污效应的理论模型,并利用1982-2008年的时间序列数据对环境援助在中国的减污效应进行实证分析。我们认为,环境援助对污染物排放的影响分为规模效应、结构效应、技术效应、挤出效应以及环境援助自身的直接减污效应;实证研究结果显示,从显性的结构效应、挤出效应、援助自身的减污效应三者之和来看,环境援助降低我国CO2和SO2的排放,增加工业废水、粉尘、烟尘和固体废物的排放,上述影响均存在滞后反应;当环境援助的规模效应小于一定临界值或技术效应大于一定临界值时,环境援助影响各工业污染物排放的总效应为负。

We investigate the mechanism of environmental aid to the pollution,and the practical effect of green aid in China.The paper builds a theoretical model of the pollution-reducing effect of environmental aid and empirically analyzes the effect in China using the time series data through 1982-2009.We divide the impact of green aid on pollution into scale effect,composition effect,technological effect,crowding-out effect and direct pollution-reducing effect of the aid itself.The empirics indicate that the sum of the composition effect,crowding-out effect and the direct pollution-reducing effect of the aid decrease the emission of CO2 and SO2,but increase the emission of wastewater,dust,smoke,and solid waste.There are lag responses of those effects mentioned.The overall pollution-abatement effects of environmental aid are negative when the scale effect is small enough or the technological effect is large enough.