生产依存度、产出关联与国际经济周期协同性——中国与主要贸易伙伴的实证检验

Production Interdependence,Output Integration and the International Business Cycle Synchronization:An Empirical Test from China and China's Major Trade Partners

本文在两国生产关系模型的简化式基础上推导了生产依存度与产出关联的关系,并认为当生产函数为规模报酬递减时,两国间生产依存度越大则产出的关联性越强。产出关联性越强,经济周期协同性越明显。检验中国与前10大贸易伙伴的数据,中国与主要贸易伙伴在生产上具有规模报酬递减的性质,意味着随着中国与这些国家(或地区)生产依存度的加深,两国(或地区)之间的产出关联性也越强,中国与这些国家(或地区)经济周期有协同性趋势。

This paper examines the links between production interdependence and output integration via a simplified H-P model.The findings suggest that has nothing with the output integration at constant returns to scale,while rising production interdependence leads to growing output integration at decreasing returns to scale.The stronger output integration,the obvious international business cycle is.An empirical VAR test shows that China and its major trade partners share the decreasing returns to scale and their output integration grow with the production interdependence growth.