在广州的非洲裔移民行为的因果机制——累积因果视野下的移民行为研究

African Immigration in Guangzhou China:A cumulative causation perspective on immigration behavior

本研究通过研究在华非洲裔外国人国际迁移行为的因果机制,来验证国际迁移理论,尤其是累积因果理论。针对广州的非洲外国移民属于隐藏的小群体,故采用受访者驱动抽样(respondent driven sampling)方法。实证量化研究发现,2005-2011年来华在广州的非洲裔外国人迁移(非法居留)行为具有国际移民早期阶段的发生特征,移民社会资本的累积因果效应不断加强。只要中国经济继续发展,社会稳定,后续的非法移民将不断加强和拓展。建议在现阶段,政策上应通过抬升来华非洲裔外国人的社会阶层,抑制流入者的阶层下降速度和规模。

This study tries to test the theory of international migration,particularly the theory of cumulative causation,by examining the causal mechanisms of interna- tional migration behavior of African foreigners in China.Since the African immigrant population in Guangzhou is a hard-to-reach group,so respondent driven sampling (RDS) method was employed and 648 samples was collected in two immigrant communities. Quantitative analysis shows that the migration behavior of African foreigners in China between 2005 and 2011 has characteristics of early stage of international migration. The study also illustrates that the cumulative causation of migration is an important dynamic in migration,and its effect has been increasingly enhanced.Therefore, as long as China's economy continues to develop and the society keeps stable, the next wave of illegal immigrants would continue to strengthen itself and expand rapidly.The policy implication of this study is that the government should uplift the social strata of the African foreigners coming to China by restraining the speed and the scale of the flowing-in immigrants from the lower strata.