“金砖五国”贸易竞争力的比较分析

Comparative Analysis of the Trade Competitiveness of BRICS

文章从传统经济学视角分析了经济增长、经济人口、财政赤字、人均可支配收入和汇率分别对一国贸易规模的理论影响,并利用2001～2012年"金砖五国"相关经济数据,采用现代经济学方法研究了各变量对五国贸易规模的定量影响。研究发现,在"金砖五国"中,贸易竞争力最强的是中国,其次是俄罗斯,以后分别是印度、巴西和南非。从贸易竞争力来看,虽然经济增长、经济人口、财政赤字对中国贸易规模的推动作用强于其余四国,但是人均可支配收入对对外贸易规模产生正向作用最大的国家是南非,对中国几乎无影响。另外,汇率升值对对外贸易规模产生负向作用最大的也是中国。因此,在短期内中国可能继续保持较强的贸易竞争力,但若从长期来看则不一定。

This paper analyzes, from a traditional economics perspective, the impact of economic growth, the economic population, fiscal deficit, per capita disposable income and the exchange rate on the scale of a country＇s trade, and uses economic data from the BRICS countries from 2001 to 2012 and modern economic methods to study the quantitative impact of each variable on the trade of the five nations. The study found that, in terms of trade competitiveness, China is strongest, followed by Russia, India, Brazil and South Africa respectively. From the perspective of trade competitiveness, although economic growth, the economic population, and the budget deficit play a stronger promotional role on China＇s trade than the other four countries, the posi- tive role of per capita disposable income on foreign trade is strongest in South Africa and plays almost no role in China. In addition, the negative role of exchange rate appreciation on the scale of foreign trade is greatest in China. Therefore, in the short term, China is likely to continue to maintain strong trade competitiveness; however, this may not be the ease in the long tenn. Finally, this paper provides policy recommendations to enhance the competitiveness of China＇s trade based on the conclusions of the study.