三氯氢硅储罐环境风险评价事故树分析

Environment Risk Assessment of Trichlorosilane Storage Tank with Accident Tree Analysis

采用事件树和故障树分析方法,对三氯氢硅储罐风险事故源进行了定量和定性分析。事件树定量分析结果为:储罐一旦发生泄漏事故,三氯氢硅泄漏事故概率为6.16×10-6,火灾、爆炸事故概率为3.08×10-6,中毒事故概率为7.61×10-7。故障树定性分析结果为:三氯氢硅蒸汽与空气混合浓度达到爆炸极限事件的结构重要度最大,其次是三氯氢硅泄漏事件,再次是点火源及罐区存在冷却水事件。通过事件树-故障树分析,探讨了储罐泄漏的事故后果及火灾、爆炸事故的主要原因,并提出了相应的防范措施。

This paper adopts event tree and fault tree analysis methods to conduct a quantitative and qualitative analysis on the accident sources of trichlorosilane storage tank. The quantitative analysis on event tree shows that in leakage accident of stor- age tanks, the probability of trichlorosilane leakage accident is 6. 16 × 10 -6, probability of the fire and blast accident is 3.08 × 10-6 and for poisoning accident is 7.61 × 10-7. The qualitative analysis of fault tree shows that the important degree of factors causing fire and blast in a descending order are trichlorosilane stream and air mixture concentration reaching the blast limit, tri- chlorosilane leakage event and cooling water in ignition source and tank area. Through event tree and fault tree analysis, this pa- per discusses the consequences of storage tank leakage and the mainly causes of fire and blast accident, providing some relevant measures to prevent similar accidents.