全球视角下的人口结构变迁与国际资本流动

The Global Demographic Structure and the Anatomy of International Capital Flows

本文选取了世界190个国家过去60年的面板数据及21世纪的预测数据,考查了人口年龄结构和国际资本流动的关系。从全球范围内来看,总体上经常账户余额与人口抚养比的逆向关系得到支持。对应着各国人口结构的阶梯性变动,全球国际资本流动格局总体上呈现成年国家流向老年或少年国家的局面。从梯队来看,继上世纪中叶以来,第一梯队美国、欧洲,第二梯队日本、中国、东南亚,第三梯队中亚、南亚、西亚、非洲依次向世界输出资本。欧、美、澳、新等国家或地区在21世纪会持续输入资本,中国会在21世纪30年代、东南亚将在50年代开始由资本输出国转向资本输入国。给定世界和中国未来的人口结构变迁,未来世界国际资本流动格局需要更严肃的思考和应对。

This paper investigated the relationship between the demographic structure and international capital flows with the panel data of 190 countries over the past 50 years and the projection of the rest of the 21st century. Theoretically, it is supposed that the current account balance is negatively related to the demographic ＇structure represented by the dependency ratios. The results of this paper supported the hypothesis. Since the middle of the last century, the United States, Europe, Japan and China have been exporting capital one after another. In the 21st century, China, India and Africa will in turn become the main capital exporter, while the developed countries in Europe and the United States will keep importing capital. China will transit to be a capital-importing country in around 2030 due to its rapid aging population. Given the population structure of the world, the future situation of the international capital flow of the world requires more serious concerns and responses.