资本管制对资本流动波动性的影响分析

The Impact of Capital Control on the Volatility of International Capital Flows

2008年全球金融危机之后,国际资本大规模流入新兴市场国家,不断冲击其宏观经济稳定。为此,监管当局纷纷采取资本管制措施。这一现象引起了全球金融领域的热烈讨论:资本管制能否对降低国际资本流动的波动起到积极作用?鉴于此,本文以降低国际资本流动的波动性为政策目标,分别对高收入和中低收入国家的资本管制政策的有效性进行实证研究,认为总体上,高收入国家的资本管制可以在一定程度上降低资本流动的波动性,但是,中低收入国家的资本管制并不能降低资本流动的波动性,尤其是FDI类净流入波动。

After the global financial crisis that happened in 2008, international capital flow into emerging markets surged dramatically, plaguing the stability of domestic economy. Many countries adopted capital control measures to deal with the capital inflow boom. This phenomenon incurs intense debate among both the academic and policy circle： can capital control effectively reduce the volatility of international capital flows？ To answer this question, this paper uses a sample including both the high-income and middle-low-income countries to study the usefulness of capital control on stabilizing the huge capital inflows.