1982～2010年期间四次全国人口普查数据一致性研究——基于出生人口队列的分析

Consistency of the Population Census Data in China:A Birth Cohort Analysis

数据一致性是反映人口普查数据质量高低的重要指标。文章以第三、四、五、六次全国人口普查数据为基础,充分考虑人口死亡因素,比较同一出生队列人口在不同普查年份的人口规模,以此对人口普查数据一致性进行检验。研究中主要有三点发现:一是分时期进行分析,在"三普"至"六普"的28年间,九成以上出生队列人口存活率大于1,发生正偏离现象;二是对四次人口普查中的相邻两次普查依次进行比较,普查时处于0～90岁的91个出生队列人口偏离量逐渐增大,偏离率渐次上升;三是分性别来看,1982～2000年出生队列人口偏离程度存在显著性别差异。相当数量的出生队列人口出现系统性正偏离,表明在人口普查中存在较为严重的人口漏报、人口重报或死亡漏报。

Consistency is an important indicator of census data quality. This paper compares cen- sus population by birth cohort across the last four censuses taking into account age - specific death fac- tors. Results demonstrate that there is some inconsistency between data from the last four censuses. First, over 90% of the birth cohorts have positive deviations from 1982 to 2010, that is, cohort survival ratios are greater than 1. Second, deviations of birth cohorts 0 -90 between two adjacent censuses gradually increase. Third, there are significant gender differences on the cohort deviations over 1982 - 2000. There is a large number of birth cohorts having systematic positive deviations, indicating that there are serious problems of population underreporting, overreporting or death underreporting in the national population censuses.