第六次人口普查数据中的年龄误报与分析

Age Misreporting in China's Sixth Population Census

人口年龄结构是最基础的人口结构,年龄误报对各项人口指标的把握和判断有很大影响,在利用普查数据进行分析之前对年龄数据质量的评估至关重要。文章对2010年第六次人口普查的年龄数据进行了评估,结果表明:全国的年龄数据申报质量较高,但部分特殊年龄(如20岁)可能存在多报和堆积;广东、广西、海南和新疆4个省份100岁及以上高龄组老年人可能存在年龄高报和死亡后未销户问题;一些省份如新疆、西藏、海南、甘肃、青海和宁夏等存在较严重的年龄误报问题;一些省份的汉族也有年龄堆积;少数民族中维吾尔族、藏族、苗族、布依族、傣族、回族、哈萨克族和黎族年龄堆积明显。比较第六次和第五次人口普查数据发现年龄申报质量在提高。

Age structure is the most fundamental population structure, and age misreporting will have significant negative effects on many demographic indicators. Therefore, it is necessary and important to evaluate the quality of age data before conducting any further analysis. The purpose of this paper is to examine the quality of the age data of China＇ s Sixth Population Census. Results are as following ： age data of the whole nation is of high quality while age heaping at some special ages still exists; four provinces - Guangdong, Guangxi, Hainan and Xinjiang have seen cases of age overstating for people aged 100 and over and being unable to cancel registration of the dead; some provinces like Xinjiang, Xizang, Hainan, Gansu, Qinghai and Ningxia suffer from serious age misreporting problems; age data of some minority groups （the Uyghur, Zang, Miao, Bouyei, Dai, Hui, Kazak, and Li Nationality） face severe heaping problems, so do the Han people in some provinces. Compared to the Fifth Population Census data, the quality of age data in the Sixth Population Census has been improved.