我国灾难教育体系实施效果的计量检验评估——基于五省市小学生的调研数据

Econometric Test for the Evaluation of Implementation Effect of Disaster Education——Based on Empirical Data from Pupils in 5 Provinces

汶川地震后,中国灾难教育体系建设得到前所未有的重视和加强,但该公共政策实施效果仍存在争论,文章旨在利用客观数据和计量方法评估公共政策实施的效果。基于全国代表性小学生问卷调研数据,利用logit和orderedprobit回归技术,对灾难教育体系政策实施效果进行评估。结果发现,五位一体的灾难教育体系显著促进了学生灾难知识水平的提高,这项公共政策的实施收到了良好效果。在研究结论基础上,提出了进一步提升灾难教育体系政策效果的政策建议,包括重视自我教育、深入挖掘社区灾难教育功能等。

After the Wenchuan earthquake, the construction of disaster education system in China get unprecedented attention and strengthen. But there are controversies about the implementation effect of the public policy. The study aims at assessing the implementation effect of public policy by utilizing objective data and econometric methods. Based on the investigation data about nationwide and representative pupils, we assessed the implementation effect of disaster education system policy by using logit regression model and ordered probit regression model. The resuhs show that the ＂five-in-one＂ disaster education sys- tem has promoted students＇ level of disaster education notably which tells that the implementation of this public policy has played good effects. On base of the research conclusion, we put forward some suggestions which include that we should pay more attention on self-education and digging the function of community disaster education.