基于情景的上海台风风暴潮淹没模拟研究

Flood Simulation Study of Typhoon Storm Surge Based on Scenarios in Shanghai

台风风暴潮是上海地区面临的主要自然灾害类型,历史上对该区域造成了极为严重的灾害损失。通过上海沿海多站点水文频率分析结果发现,由于高标准海塘的防护,上海发生风暴潮漫堤淹没的几率较小。在此基础上,构建了两处溃堤点6种重现期台风风暴潮溃堤情景,采用高精度洪水数值模型(FloodMap)开展台风风暴潮淹没情景模拟。结果显示,溃堤情景下,风暴潮淹没仅发生在局部小范围区域内。因此,可以认为在目前高标准海塘的保护下,上海受台风风暴潮灾害影响有限。但是,未来需重点关注全球气候变化可能导致的极端台风风暴潮事件。

Storm surges from tropical cyclones,as one of the most devastating natural hazards in Shanghai, have caused considerable personal injury and property damage in the history.A scenario-based study that investigated the storm induced flood potentials in Shanghai coastal area was conducted.Based on the probability analysis for several gauge stations,the findings show that due to the high standard seawall,it is less likely to occur overtopping inundation in the short term.Therefore,two vulnerable sections of seawall and six kinds of storm surge barrier bursts scenarios were built.Comparing the local land elevation with the flood levels of different return periods,flood scenarios with return periods of 20,50,100,200,500 and 1000 years were designed to cover the probable situations.The shape of the flow hydrographs at the boundary gauging stations for various return periods was derived based on 9711 typhoon induced flood event where hourly flow boundary conditions were available.To reduce the computational costs of the simulation,the design flood scenarios were represented with 20 hours tidal hydrographs,which include two rising phases and two falling limbs.The topographic contours（0.5 m intervals） of Shanghai were interpolated to generate a DEM with a grid cell resolution of 50 m.These provided the flow and topographic boundary conditions for the model simulations.A well-established 2D flood numerical model（FloodMap） was used to predict the flood dynamics and inundation process. Subsequent analysis using Geographical Information Systems（GIS） was employed to illustrate the spatial and temporal distribution of flood-prone areas under different scenarios.The results indicated that,1） maximum inundation depths were reached in all simulations at approximately the second to third hour,decreasing afterwards as the stage recedes.2） Inundation area for each scenario increased throughout the simulation,even during the receding limb of the hydrograph.3） The maximum inundation extents and depths increased with the increasing return periods.4） Flooding from levee breach only caused local inundation.It can be concluded that the impact of storm flooding was not particularly high in Shanghai at present situation with the protection of high standard dike systems.However,extreme events caused by global climate change should be considered in future studies.