论袁世凯策划民元“北京兵变”说之不能成立

Yuan Shikai ( 袁世凯) Did Not Plan “Beijing Mutiny”in February 1912

百年来,袁世凯一直被很多人视为民元"北京兵变"的主谋,然而却没有一条可信的材料可以证明这一点,被研究者广泛征引的刘成禺《民元北京兵变内幕》其实是一条假材料。而透过其他许多可靠材料,可以看出,南方在永久首都和临时政府地点问题上做出了重大妥协,因此袁为"争都"而策划兵变没有紧迫性和必要性。同时亦可看出,袁对南下就职的态度,有一个变化过程。起初因有后顾之忧不愿立刻南下,而后随着局势变化,逐步变为积极行动,只不过由于袁克定等突然发动兵变而中止。至于袁克定等之所以要发动兵变,阻袁南下,是因为他们担心自己的前途和既得利益会因袁南下就职而受到损害,而不能像袁那样从南北统一的全局和高度来考虑问题。从最终结果来看,袁世凯固然是兵变受益者,但因兵变失去控制,由"政治性"兵变演变为"真性"兵变,并蔓延到其他一些地方,导致袁在国人及外交团心目中的威望遭受重创,从而对南北合一后新政府的建立和运行造成一定影响。

For a century, Yuan Shikai has been deemed the chief plotter of ＂Beijing Mutiny＂ in the first year of the Republic of China, but there was no reliable proof about that. The ＂Inside Story of Beijing Mutiny in the First Year of the Republic of China＂ by Liu Chengyu （ 刘成禺）, which was widely quoted as proof by many researchers, was in fact false materials. On the contrary, through many other reliable documents, it can be found out that the South had accepted great compromise on the issue of sites of permanent capital and provisional government, so there was no urgency or necessity for Yuan Shikai to plan a mutiny for ＂contending for the site of the capital＂. Meanwhile, it could be seen that Yuan Shikai changed his attitude toward getting inaugurated in the South. Primarily, he was not willing to go southward due to fear of attacks from behind; later, he became active about that with the situation changing, but was interrupted by the sudden mutiny started by Yuan Keding （袁克定） and others who worried about their future and vested interest would be impaired Yuan＇s inauguration in the South. It＇s no doubt that Yuan Shikai benefited from the mutiny, however, as the mutiny became out of control and turned from a ＂political＂ mutiny into an authentic one, spreading to some other regions, his prestige among Chinese people and diplomatic corps was heavily damaged the establishment and operation of a new government after unification of the South and the , and thus affected Noah.