基于ARMA模型的我国“十二五”时期中成药工业产值预测分析

ARMA model-based prediction analysis of industrial output of traditional Chinese patent medicine in "Twelfth Five-Year Plan" period in China

"十二五"是我国中医药产业发展的关键时期,而中成药作为中医药产业的重要子行业也备受关注。本文通过建立我国中成药工业产值的时间序列ARMA模型,对我国"十二五"时期中成药工业产值进行预测,为政府和企业制定相关政策提供参考和建议,以保证中成药产业健康快速发展。

＂Twelfth Five-Year Plan＂ period is crucial period of the development of traditional Chinese medicine industry in China.Traditional Chinese patent medicine,as an important subset industry of traditional Chinese medicine industry,is also of concern.In this paper,we established the time series ARMA model of industrial output of traditional Chinese patent medicine,and forecast industrial output of traditional Chinese patent medicine in ＂Twelfth Five-Year Plan＂ period in China.This analysis will provide references for the government and pharmaceutical enterprises to take effective measures to promote the healthy and rapid development of traditional Chinese patent medicine.