摘要
“政府应该鼓励卖房”,商务部研究院对外贸易研究部副主任金柏松认为,“这一方面可以引导房主将所得的收入投入消费,提振内需;另一方面,将提前分散人口老龄化带来的房地产供应过剩的风险。”
Jin Baisong,the vice director of foreign trade research dept.of Commerce Department Research Institute,maintains that the government should encourage house selling,because on one hand,it can let the house-owners spend more income into consumption,which will greatly boost domestic demand;on the other hand,it will easy the risk of surplus supply of housing brought about by aging population in advance.This is the view held by Jin Baisong in the book named '2013 Chinese economic situation analysis and prediction'.He has always insisted that although the 'bubble' degree of China's real estate market had been overvalued and exaggerated by many researchers,the rapidly changing population structure may push China's real estate market to 'cliff' in the not far future.In addition,he says that,to our real estate market,Chinese future aging population is a very important reference index.According to the National Aging Office,by 2020,our country's aging population will be 248 million,accounting for 17.17% of the whole population.In other word,the aging population will increase by 3.28% every year,the number is almost six million.The original youth and middle age people,which now is the biggest part of population structure,will quickly enter into aging population structure.Then the whole population structure will gradually become 'inverted pyramid'.From the aspect of economic development,this may be the worst situation.
出处
《上海经济》
2013年第1期16-17,共2页
Shanghai Economy