基于改进灰色预测模型的河南省第三产业对经济增长的贡献率预测

Contribution Rate Prediction to Economic Growth for the Tertiary Industry in Henan Province Based on an Improved Grey Prediction Model

本文主要对河南省第三产业对经济增长的贡献率进行预测研究。在对该问题的研究过程中,一种改进的灰色预测模型被应用到实际的预测之中。这种改进的模型通过采用一次累加生成序列的最后一个数值作为时间响应函数的初始值,能够有效的利用新的信息。通过实际的预测发现,该模型能够有效拟合原始数据信息,并且越靠近最新时间点,预测精度越高,效果越好。因此,该模型可以为具有小样本特征的数据提供很好的预测思路。

The contribution rate prediction to economic growth for the tertiary industry in Henan province is focused in this paper. An improved grey prediction model is applied in the practical prediction. The initial value in the improved model is from the final values in the first accumulated generation results. Then the new information could be used effectively. From the experimental prediction we find that the presented model in the paper could simulate the original data information well and obtain good prediction result. And the presented method cnuld nmvid~ a ~nnd nath fnr sm~｜l .~Arnnl~ data nredietinn in nractice.