基于传导渠道视角的货币政策对房地产业的影响分析

The Effect of Monetary Policy on Housing Market in China———An Empirical Analysis Based on the Monetary Transmission Theory

本文通过协整检验、格兰杰因果分析、VAR模型,对我国货币政策对房地产行业的影响及其传导问题进行了实证研究,并得到以下结论:扩张的货币政策会使房地产投资和价格在短期内上升,并促使房地产投资和价格长期在比原来更高的水平上波动;在房地产行业研究中,货币政策传导的信贷渠道、货币渠道都显著存在,其中货币渠道相对于信贷渠道更为重要。

The thesis focuses on the dynamic effect of monetary policy on housing market, and analyzes the mainly transmission channel of this influence with VAR model.＇ The thesis reaches the following conclusions： the expansion of monetary policy would boost the housing investment and price in a short time and this effect will last in the long run. The transmission channels of monetary policy in housing market, including credit channel, monetary channel, which are both very significant, however monetary channel is taking a predominant position.