稻飞虱灾害风险评估

Risk Assessment of Planthopper Disaster in Zhaoqing Municipality of Guangdong Province

应用信息扩散模糊数学方法 ,以发生面积比例作为灾害指数 ,对广东省肇庆市的稻飞虱灾害风险进行评估 .结果表明 ,稻飞虱灾害风险值随灾害指数升高而下降 .在早稻期间 ,高要、四会、广宁、怀集、封开、德庆、端州等县区在灾害指数为 30 %时的风险值分别是0 0 0 9,0 10 7,0 2 13,0 2 6 3,0 4 2 2 ,0 392 ,0 4 4 9,其中端州和封开的风险值最高 ,表明这两个县区几乎每隔一年 ,稻飞虱发生面积就超过播种面积的 30 % .晚稻期间 ,该市稻飞虱灾害风险值明显低于早稻 ,但德庆县的灾害指数为 30 %的风险值仍然高达 0 2 98.

The risk of planthopper disaster in Zhaoqing municipality of Guangdong Province was assessed with fuzzy method based on information diffusion principle. The ratio of occurrence area of planthopper to sowing area was used as the disaster index for assessment. It was shown that the values of risk decreased with the increasing of disaster index levels. In early rice season, the risk values under the disaster index level of 30% for Gaoyao, Sihui, Guangning, Huaiji, Fengkai, Deqing, and Duanzhou were 0 009, 0 107, 0 213, 0 236, 0 422, 0 392, and 0 449 respectively. The highest risk value in Fengkai Duanzhou counties indicated that planthopper occurred once in two year interval with 30% of sowing area. In late rice season, the risk values for all counties were significantly lower than that in early rice. However, the value in Deqing and Duanzhou counties was still as high as 0 298 under the level of 30% of disaster index, meaning high risk existed in late season in the two counties.