经济增长如何应对汇率升值问题的研究——基于“广场协议”前后德国的经验与启示

Research of Economic Growth How to Deal with the Exchange Rate Appreciation—Based on the “Plaza Agreement ” and the German's Experience and Enlightenment

"广场协议"后,马克大幅升值,但德国的经济不但没有出现日本式的泡沫,而且仍保持平稳增长。德国成功的经验为当前我国人民币不断升值,制造业出口增幅下降,宏观经济增速减缓等现状提供了十分宝贵的经验。分析德国1970-1998年期间的主要宏观经济数据发现:稳健的货币政策,低通货膨胀率的保持,股市、楼市等资本市场价值的稳定,技术上不断创新并且保持核心技术本土化的制造业、劳动生产率的不断提高以及较低的失业率是德国经济在马克升值期间成功的关键。

After the ＂ Plaza Agreement＂, Mark appreciates considerably, but Germany＇s economy did not appear Japanese style bubble, but still maintain smooth growth. German successful experience are very valuable, as our manufacturing industry export and macro-economic growth rate dropped because of the increasing appreciation of the RMB. Analysis of Germany＇s main macroeconomic data during the years 1970-1998＂s, we discover that the prudent monetary policy, low inflation, stability value of capital stock and property markets, technical innovation and keep the core technology of localization of manufacturing industry as well as the moderate unemployment rate and the steady growth of Labour productivity are the main keys which keeping German economy in success during the period of Mark appreciates.