财税政策调整与财政风险预警研究——基于CGE模拟分析

Research on Fiscal Risk Early-warning According to Finance and Tax Policy Adjustment:A CGE Analysis

在我国中央财政赤字增加和地方债务不断累积的情况下,观察财政风险的变化情况尤其重要。本文首先总结财政风险预警研究的最新进展,构建了一个在复杂现实背景下分析财税政策调整对财政风险影响的CGE模型,模拟了增加财政支出、提高税负和提高利率的三种情形,研究发现:在宏观经济运行的内外部条件没有改变的前提下,今后五年的财政风险都将继续加大。因此,建议对后金融危机时代的财政风险状况变化给予高度关注,提高财政透明度,设立财政偿债基金,建立风险管理及预警机制,确保风险在可控的范围内。

In our country,under the central fiscal deficit increase and local debt constantly accumulated cases,to observe the change of financial risk is particularly important.This paper first summarizes the recent research of fiscal risk early-warning.Then it constructs a CGE model under a reality in the complex background of finance and tax policy adjustment to measure fiscal risk.And throuth the simulation of three kinds of situations： increasing financial expenditure,raise taxes and raise interest rates,if China＇s economic operation that the internal and external environment isn＇t changed,under the prerequisite of China＇s future financial risk will continue to increase.Accordingly,this paper proposes that during the post-era of international financial crisis,we should pay great attention to changes of fiscal risk status,raise fiscal transparency,set up financial sinking fund,establish fiscal risk management and early warning mechanism,prevent and dissolve theformulated financial risk through a series of plans and measures,to ensure that the risk is under control.