东亚区域内最终产品需求的影响因素分析——基于面板数据的引力模型研究

An Analysis on the Influencing Factors for the Demand of the Final Goods in East Asia:A Research based on the Panel Data by Gravity Model

本文利用东亚十国(或地区)1991～2010年间数据,运用引力模型,分析影响东亚区域内最终产品需求的因素。研究结果表明:区域性贸易协定(RTA)、经济总量、2008年金融危机和人均GDP差额绝对值,对区域内最终产品需求起显著促进作用;人口规模、地理距离对区域内最终产品需求起显著阻碍作用。1997年金融危机也对区域内最终产品需求起阻碍作用,但不显著。从行业差别来看,除了距离变量之外,各解释变量对资本品需求的影响均大于对消费品需求的影响。因此,为扩大东亚区域内的最终产品需求,区域内各经济体应该降低物流成本、发展区域性贸易合作组织、稳定汇率、扩大各自经济规模。

This paper analyzes the factors which influence the final goods demand in East Asia by gravity model on the panel data of ten East Asian countries(or regions) between 1991 and 2010.The results show that the factors such as RTA,economic scale,financial crisis in 2008 and the absolute value of the GDP per capita difference between two economies promote the regional final goods demand significantly,but the population and geographical distance impede the regional final goods demand significantly.The financial crisis in 1997 is also disadvantageous to the final goods demand,but it is insignificant.Viewing from the difference between industries,all explanatory variables except geographical distance are more influential for capital goods demand than consumption goods demand.Therefore,the economies in this region should lower the logistics cost,develop the regional trade cooperative organizations,stabilize the exchange rate and expand their own economic scales.