中国林业发展的大气环境治理效应实证分析

Empirical Analysis of the Effects of Atmospheric Environmental Governance in China’s Forestry Development

选取工业废气排放量、工业粉尘排放量、工业烟尘排放量、工业SO2排放量、林地面积作为变量,采用ADF单位根检验、协整分析等计量方法,建立协整方程及误差修正模型（ECM）,测度我国林业发展的大气环境治理效应。得出结论：林业发展与大气环境之间存在长期均衡关系,林地面积每增加1%个单位,将分别减少4.6058%个单位的粉尘排放量,1.4495%个单位的烟尘排放量,环境效应显著;我国工业发展进程远远快于林业,导致林业发展对工业废气及工业SO2等有害气体的净化能力不足,偏离长期均衡关系。我国林业现代化发展的迟缓、林业生长周期长以及林业生态效应逆转中存在经济与环境风险等特点,导致林业发展与工业废气排放、粉尘排放、烟尘排放及SO2排放之间的长期均衡关系稳定性较差。据此提出了提升林业发展环境治理效应的对策建议。

This paper chooses industrial emissions, industrial dust emission, industrial SO2 emissions and forest land area as the variable, adopts the ADF unit root test, congregational analysis and other measurement methods, establishes congregational equation error correction model （ECM）,measures the effect of atmospheric environmental governance of China＇s forestry development .Received cognitive and conclusions are as follows： there has long-run equilibrium relationship between the development of forestry and atmospheric environment. The woodland area, add each 1% units, will be reduced 4.6058% units of dust emissions, 1.4495% units of soot emissions, which has the significant environmental effects. But at the same time, development of industry is much faster than forestry in our country ,which leads to that forestry development has the poor purification capacity of industrial waste gas and industrial SO2 and other harmful gas, deviate from the long-term equilibrium relationship. While, the economic and environmental risks exists in the slow development of China＇s forestry modernization, long growth cycle of forestry and forestry ecological effect reverse , which leads to the poor stability of the long-run equilibrium relationship between forestry development and the industrial waste gas discharge, emission of dust, soot and SO2 emissions. Accordingly, we put forward to promote the governance effect of forestry development environment.