小子样条件下火箭弹射击密集度可靠性研究

Study of fire concentration reliability of rocket under the condition of small sample

针对当前武器系统试验分析评估存在难以进行大量试验,经典统计方法难以满足需求的状况,提出在小子样条件下对某型火箭弹射击密集度可靠性进行评估。根据地面模拟环境试验和飞行试验信息,利用二项分布确定火箭弹射击密集度可靠性的分布,使用计算机进行数值处理。在不降低试验要求的情况下,与经典方法相比,小子样理论大幅度地减少了飞行试验用弹量。

As it is difficult to carry on a large number of test to analyze the weapon system at present, classical statistical method is difficult to satisfy the demands, this paper evaluates the fire concentration reliability of rocket under the condition of small sample. According to the ground simulation environment and flight test information, it utilizes Bernoulli distribution to confirm the distribution of fire concentration reliability of rocket, and uses the computer to deal with number value. In the case of not reducing test requirements, compared with classical method, the small sample theory has reduced the number of flight test by a large margin.