基于优化GM(1,1)模型的矿井涌水量预测及算法实现

Prediction of Water Inflow in Coal Mine Based on Optimized GM(1,1) Model and Its Algorithm Implementation

针对矿井涌水量预测过程中受各种因素的影响,预测精度较低的问题,基于GM(1,1)模型提出优化GM(1,1)模型。分别建立GM(1,1)模型及优化GM(1,1)模型,并对某矿2002—2010年矿井平均涌水量进行模拟计算,结果显示优化GM(1,1)模型模拟精度较高。利用MATLAB设计优化GM(1,1)模型的计算程序,解决了计算过程复杂、计算量大的问题。

To counter the problem of the influence of all factors in prediction of water inflow in coal mine and the low prediction accuracy, an optimized GM （ 1,1 ） model based on GM （ 1,1 ） model was proposed. The GM （ 1,1 ） model and the optimized GM（ 1,1 ） model were respectively established, simulation calculation was carried out on the mean water inflow in some mine from 2002 to 2010, and the results indicated that the optimized GM （ 1,1 ） model has higher simulation precision. The calculation procedures for the optimized GM （ 1,1 ） model based on MATLAB design have the advantage of solving the complicated calculation process and intensive computations.