基于联立方程模型的风暴潮灾害自然等级预报研究

Storm surge disaster natural grade classification prediction simultaneous equation model

风暴潮灾害为重大海洋灾害之一,灾害发生的频繁性对经济的可持续发展造成严重影响。因此,准确的灾前预报成为风暴潮灾害管理的关键。文章首先参照国家制定的《风暴潮、海浪、海啸和海冰灾害应急响应标准》制定出超警戒水位和浪高相结合的风暴潮自然等级划分标准,运用多指标分级方法将风暴潮自然等级强度划分为超警戒水位强度和浪高强度两个方面,并依据超警戒水位强度和浪高强度建立风暴潮等级预报联立方程。最后对比分析了基于国家划分标准和本文划分标准的风暴潮自然等级与灾情等级结果,以此验证风暴潮等级划分标准的准确性与科学性。

The storm surge disaster is one of the major marine disasters, frequent disasters seriously impact on sustainable economic de- velopment. Therefore,the key is an accurate pre-disaster forecasting storm surge disaster management. With reference to the countries＂ storm surge ,waves, tsunamis and sea ice disaster emergency response standard the article develop the storm surge natural grading standards which combines the water level and wave heights of the trade surplus alert. At the same time, we divided the intensity of storm surge natural level into two aspects, which consists the intensity of over warning water level and the intensity of wave height. Then, we determined the comprehensive intensity of storm surge natural grade based on the intensity of over warning water level and the intensity of wave height, and established a simultaneous equation of storm surge disaster level prediction. At last, in order to test and verify the accuracy and rationality of the classification standard, we compared the natural grade and disaster grade results based on the national classification standard and the standard this article orovides.