基于GM(1,1)模型的营口港物流需求预测

Prediction of the Logistical Demands of Yingkou Port Based on the GM(1,1) Model

港口物流规划是港口城市发展现代物流的一项重要内容,其中至关重要的一项就是对港口物流需求进行分析和预测。文中根据营口港物流发展现状,建立了基于GM(1,1)模型的港口物流需求灰色预测模型,并对预测结果进行了检验,通过检验可知GM(1,1)模型有很好的预测精度;同时预测了2012-2015年未来4年的物流需求,为政府进行港口物流规划以及制定相关的港口物流产业政策,促进区域经济与港口物流的整体协调和健康发展提供必要的决策数据。

Logistics planning is an important content in the development of modern logistics of port city, of which one is critical of the port logistics demands analysis and forecasting. According to Yingkou Port Logistics Development Status, To build up a gray forecasting model based on GM （ 1,1 ） model of port logistics demands, Then the validity of the forecast results has been examined. After examination we can see that the model has a good predictive accuracy ;Then predict the logistical demands in the next four years from 2012 -2015 ,which provides the necessary decision -making data for port logistics planning as well as the development of port logistics industry policy for the government, and to promote overall coordination and health development of the regional economy and port logistics.