基于GIS的中国东部经济区带区域承载力定量研究

QUANTITATIVE RESEARCH ON REGIONAL CARRYING CAPACITY IN EASTERN CHINA'S ECONOMIC ZONE BASED ON GIS

在分析中国东部经济区带发展存在的主要问题的基础上,运用主成分分析法和生态足迹法,依照构建的评价指标体系对1998—2007年中国东部经济区带区域承载力和承载状况进行定量评价。结果表明,1998—2007年,生态赤字增加趋势明显,主要以大中型城市为中心扩散分布。承载状况"良好"的地区一般同化能力较强,但是支撑能力较弱,相对承载量较小,无生态赤字;而承载状况"较差"的地区一般同化能力中等或较弱,尽管支撑能力较强,但是相对承载量大,因而生态赤字严重。最后,根据定量评价的结果,因地制宜提出了相应的政策建议。

This paper, starting from the issues in eastern China＇s economic zone, uses the methods of principal component analysis and eco-footprint and establishes an index system to quantitatively evaluate the regional carrying capacity in eastern China＇s economic zone from 1998 --2007, with the result of an increasing ecological deficit, spreading from large-middle cities. A good carrying capacity implies a stronger assimilation but weak support, free of eco-deficit, while a poor carrying capacity is on the contrary. This paper also puts forward corresponding policy recommendations according to the evaluation results.