收益不确定下交通BOT项目特许期决策模型

Decision-making Model on Concession Period for Traffic BOT Project under Uncertainty

针对收益不确定下的特许期决策问题,本文以交通BOT项目为研究对象,以政府和私人投资者双方各自的项目价值最大化为决策目标,运用实物期权和最优停时理论构建了收益不确定下的特许期决策模型,并求解出BOT项目特许期的可行区间;运用期权博弈理论构建了完全信息动态博弈模型,并求解出模型的Stackelberg均衡解。最后,通过案例对特许期决策模型进行了验证。

To provide a decision-making methodology on concession period under uncertainty arising from the volatility of the revenue generated by the project, this paper takes traffic BOT projects as a research subject, and develops real option models to maximize both private parmer^s and government＇s project value to determine the optimal investment timing. Then, it induces a feasible interval of concession period. Furthermore, it develops a dynamic game model of complete information. Option game theory is employed in attempt to find a specific concession period. Finally, an example of highway BOT project is applied to verify the decision-making model of concession period under uncertainty.