多层分区空间负荷预测方法在城网规划中的应用

Application of Multi-Layer Decomposition for Spatial Load Forecasting (SLF)in Urban Network Planning

城区负荷较为集中、分区负荷性质也较为直观的特点,使得空间负荷密度法(Spatial Load Forecasting,简称SLF)在城网远景规划中获得广泛的应用。给出了空间负荷预测数学模型,建立了多层分区的空间负荷预测结构,将预测模块分为数据收集层、仿真层和总量层;为反映负荷空间分布的特征,将供电区域划分成若干个单元小区,把空间负荷预测转化为分辨率较高的单元小区负荷的预测。该结构既具有趋势法和仿真法的优点,既减少了基础数据收集工作量,又能保证对预测区域划分具有足够解析度和预测精度。通过在河源城区电网规划中应用验证表明,在所建立的多层分区结构模型的基础上进行负荷预测,能有效地保证预测数据的合理性和实用性。

Urban power load is more concentrated, and the nature of the partition load is more intuitive, which make the space load density to obtain a wide range of applications in the urban network planning. Mathematical model of the spatial load forecasting is proposed, a new structure of multi-layer decomposition for spatial load forecasting （SLF） is built up, which divides forecasting units into gross load layer, data collection layer and simulation layer. In order to reflect the characteristics spatial load distribution, the supply area is subdivided into a number of unit cell, the spatial load forecasting can be attributed to the unit cell load forecasting. It not only has the advantages of both trending aud simulation methods but also can effectively reduce the work in data collection, under the condition of adequate spatial resolution in land decomposition and precision in SLF. The result shows that it is effectively to guarantee the forecast data rationality and practicality in the multi-layer partition structure model.