银川市梅毒发病趋势预测模型研究

A study on prediction model of epidemiological trend of syphilis in Yinchuan

目的对银川市梅毒发病趋势进行预测,为制定科学防控策略和措施提供依据。方法 (1)现场调查方法,开展梅毒报告病例准确性现场核查和梅毒报告病例漏报调查。(2)运用指数增长模型和几何增长模型(恒增长率模型),对银川市梅毒发病趋势进行预测。结果应用指数增长和几何增长模型预测梅毒发病率的结果较一致,差异无统计学意义。对指数模型拟合结果经统计学检验R2=0.963,接近1,拟合效果较好。结论指数增长模型和几何增长模型预测短期梅毒发病率较可靠,经预测,银川市梅毒发病呈上升趋势。

Objective To predict the trend of the incidence of syphilis in Yinchuan,in order to provide scientific basis for making syphilis prevention and control strategies.Methods A.Field investigations of accuracy and omission of reported syphilis cases were carried out.B.Geometric growth model and exponential growth model were used to predict the trend of the incidence of syphilis in Yinchuan.Results The results of the incidence of syphilis predicted by using exponential growth model and geometric growth model were fairly consistent,and the difference was not statistically significant.Statistical test to the fitting results showed that R2=0.963,close to 1,which indicated a good model fitting result.Conclusion Both models are reliable to predict the short-term incidence rate of syphilis.The prediction results shows that the incidence of syphilis will be on an upward trend in Yinchuan.