论中国土地政策参与宏观调控的传导机制——一个基于修正的IS-LM模型的理论诠证

On the Mechanism of Land Policy in Macroeconomic-control in China: A Theoretical Proof Based on Modified IS-LM Model

研究目的:将土地供应要素纳入国民生产研究的总体框架,并对传统IS-LM模型进行修正。系统分析土地变量变化如何影响资本在中国国民生产总供给和总需求构成中的配比,正确建立土地要素与宏观经济变量之间的联系机制,综合探讨应用土地、财政和货币政策进行宏观调控的理论机理。研究方法:计量经济法,模型分析法。研究结果:(1)土地市场供求均衡条件下,引入土地要素的IS-LM扩展模型构建了土地政策通过货币资本调节宏观经济变量的传导机制;(2)土地供给弹性和价格影响土地政策调控的方向和强度,不同经济周期阶段具有不同的土地供给弹性特征;(3)引入土地要素的IS-LM均衡需要财政、货币和土地政策协同作用实现。研究结论:土地参与宏观调控推升了土地价格;经济转型或衰退期,适当紧缩供地规模有利于抑衰退、稳增长。

The purposes of this paper are to bring land factor into the general fame of national product and develop a new modified IS-LM equilibrium model,aiming to find out the impacts of land factor on the effective allocation of capital between total supply and total demand constituting gross national product,analyze the relation mechanism among land factor and macroeconomic variables,and discuss the theoretical mechanism under which land,fiscal and monetary policy are integrated.Methods employed include econometrics and model analysis.The results indicate that 1） on the conditions that the equilibrium of supply and demand in land market,the modified IS-LM model taking into account the land factor successfully shows the mechanism of land policy in macroeconomic-control by means of money capital regulation;2） the direction and intensity of land policy control are affected by elasticity of land supply and land price,meanwhile different characteristics of land supply elasticity exit in different stages of economic development.3） The realization of IS-LM equilibrium requires the aggregate effects of fiscal,monetary and land policy.It is concluded that land policies for macroeconomiccontrol drives land price higher.The government can control economical operation better through tightening land policy during the economic transition or recession period.