高等教育改革对居民消费和储蓄变化的影响

The Impact of Higher Education Reform on the Change of Consumption and Savings of Chinese Residents

作为消费品和投资品的高等教育发展是影响居民消费和储蓄变化的重要因素。1999年我国开始了以扩大招生规模和收取学杂费为主要内容的高等教育改革,结构突变检验表明,1999年我国高等教育招生规模发生了结构性突变,同时高等教育招生人数与居民年消费量以及高等教育招生人数与居民年终储蓄余额的协整关系也发生了变化。进一步的实证分析表明,我国高等教育发展对居民消费及储蓄的影响可大致分为三个阶段:1956—1965年挤出消费并拉动储蓄,1970—1998年拉动消费并挤出储蓄,1999—2010年挤出消费并拉动储蓄。由于高等教育学杂费增长超过收入增长、人们对于接受高等教育的渴望以及高等教育资源地域分布的不均衡,目前的高等教育改革不会在短期内扩大内需。必须在提高居民整体收入水平的基础上,才能通过高等教育的发展来有效扩大内需;同时,政府还应加大对高校的财政支持,减少高校收费,并加大对低收入地区高等教育发展的扶持力度。

The development of higher education, as a consumption product and an investment product, is an important factor to affect the change of consumption and savings of Chinese residents, in 1999, China began to reform higher education by enlarging enrollment scale and by collecting tuition fees and incidental fees as main contents of the reform, and unit root method test shows that China＇ s higher education enrollment scale in 1999 underwent structural break, meanwhile, the cointegration relation between the enrollment number of higher education and the consumption quantity of Chinese residents and between the enrollment number of higher education and the balance of yearend consumption of Chinese residents also changed. Further empirical analysis shows that the impact of China＇ s higher education development on the consumption and savings of Chinese residents can be approximately categorized into such three periods as squeezing out consumption and driving savings during 1956-- 1965, driving consumption and squeezing out savings during 1970--1998 and squeezing out consumption and driving savings during 1999--2010. Because the increase of tuition fees and incidental fees of higher education surpassed the increase of income growth of Chinese residents, because Chinese youths are desired to obtain higher education and because higher education resources allocation is not balanced, current higher education reform can not expand domestic demand in short-term, as a result, so that domestic demand can be effectively enlarged the overall income level of Chinese residents must be raised by higher education development, meanwhile, Chinese Government should consolidate financial support for higher learning institutions, reduce tuition fees and incidental fees of the institutions and enhance the support for the higher education development in the areas with the residents with low income.