冷战后美国学界关于“中国军事威胁论”的辩论

American Scholars' Debate on China's Military Threat in the Post-Cold War Era

冷战结束以来,美国学界围绕所谓"中国军事威胁"的争论就一直没有间断过。争论双方在中国的战略意图、军事实力及中美是否能够缓解安全困境等问题上存在明显分歧。一些学者认为,随着经济高速增长,军事现代化步伐加快,中国将对美国在亚太、乃至全球的战略利益构成潜在威胁,中美安全困境难以克服。但多数学者认为,中国军事实力有限,战略目标克制,在可预见的将来不会对美国的战略优势和军事优势构成实质性威胁。他们主张中美加强接触,促进军事互信,缓解安全困境。这些辩论已经并将继续对美国对华政策产生深远影响。

Since the end of the Cold War,the debate over China＇s military threat among American scholars has never ceased.The two sides differ significantly over China＇s strategic intentions,military capabilities and the possible alleviation of bilateral security dilemma.Some argue that with the rapid economic development and military modernization,China＇s overall military power is on the rise,which is increasingly posing a potential threat to American strategic interests in Asia-Pacific and around the globe.Therefore,the security dilemma between the United States and China is difficult to overcome.However,a great majority of American scholars hold a different view.They contend that China＇s military power is limited,strategic aims are restrained,and therefore it cannot pose a real threat to American strategic and military primacy in the foreseeable future.They propose that the United States should continue to engage China,enhance mutual trust and alleviate the security dilemma.This debate has already had and will continue to have a profound impact on U.S.policy towards China.