定量特尔斐预测的经验贝叶斯估计法

Empirical Bayes Estimation for Delphi Quantitative Forecasting

本文主要探讨利用贝叶斯估计法改进特尔斐预测精确度的可能性。作为示例,着重讨论了时间域和空间域两种典型的预测类型,并通过设想的例子阐明了这种方法的具体应用。

This paper primarily deals with the possibility to improve the forecast precision for Delphi method by use of Bayes' estimation. As an illustrated example, two typical forecasts in the time domain and the space domain are discussed. The applications of this method are explained by some supposed examples.