国际资本流动对我国银行体系稳定性的影响

The Impact on the Chinese Banking System Stability by International Capital Flows

从国际资本流动与银行体系稳定性的理论基础来看,国际资本的流入与流出所引发的逆向选择、道德风险问题以及银行挤兑现象是银行体系脆弱性的主要体现。由此,国际资本流动主要通过直接冲击、间接冲击和继发性冲击等途径来引发银行挤兑或逆向选择和道德风险问题,进而影响一国银行体系的稳定性。通过构建BSS3指数模型和Granger因果关系检验可知,在资本项目开放与利率市场化改革的发展趋势下,我国应积极筹建存款保险机构、提高银行信贷管理水平、完善银行业市场退出机制以及加强银行业监管,以维持开放经济下我国银行体系的稳健运行。

From the theoretical basis of international capital flows and banking system stability, the adverse selec- tion, moral hazard problems and the bank run caused by international capital inflows and outflows are the main mani- festation of the vulnerability of the banking system. As a result, international capital flows may trigger a bank run or ad- verse selection and moral hazard problems mainly through the direct impact, indirect impact and secondary impact ways, thereby affect the stability of a country＇ s banking system. Through BSS3 index model and the Granger causality test, we can conclude that, we should actively build up the deposit insurance agencies, improve the level of bank cred- it management, build up the exit mechanism of banking market and strengthen banking supervision to maintain the banking system soundness in the open economy operation.