摘要
建立起基于灰色预测、三次指数平滑预测、非线性回归预测的交通量组合预测模型。通过实例分析发现,组合预测模型相比单个预测方法具有更高的精度,能够较准确地预测未来几年的公路交通量情况。
This paper has established a kind of traffic volume combination forecasting model based on gray forecast, three -time exponential smoothing method and nonlinear regression forecasting model. And it has forecasted the traffic volume of Shandong province in the years from 2010 to 2015. The combination forecasting model is more precise than a single forecasting model through the research. And it can accurately forecast the recent years＇ situation of traffic volume in Shandong province.
出处
《河北交通职业技术学院学报》
2009年第2期71-74,共4页
Journal of Hebei Jiaotong Vocational and Technical College
关键词
交通量预测模型
灰色预测
组合预测模型
三次指数平滑法
最优加权法
trffic volume forecasting model
gray model （GM）
combination forecasting model
three-time exponential smoothing method
optimal weighted method
