云南省家鼠鼠疫疫源地室内黄胸鼠丰盛度预测因子的研究

Predictors for abundance of Rattus tanezumi in households of commensal rodent plague foci

目的研究家鼠鼠疫疫源地影响室内黄胸鼠丰盛度的因子。方法在云南省梁河县选择30个鼠疫历史疫源村，每个村随机抽取20户家庭，放置鼠笼捕获鼠类动物，根据动物的外形特征鉴定其种类。采用调查和实地相结合的方式收集潜在影响黄胸鼠丰盛度的因子。采用EpiData软件建立数据库，在R软件下进行多水平跨栏回归统计分析。结果共捕获166只鼠类动物（黄胸鼠133只和臭胸鼯33只）。多水平回归分析结果显示：傣族、铁桶储存粮食、家中养犬、住家周围有其他房屋的家庭增加捕获黄胸鼠的概率为1．67～2．76倍，养鸡家庭超过80％的自然村其捕获黄胸鼠数量增加2．18倍，有公共厕所的自然村增加了捕获黄胸鼠的概率为1．93倍，同时也增加捕获数量2．38倍。自然村周围种植玉米以及养猫、牛的家庭降低了捕获黄胸鼠的概率（45％。61％），院外有厕所的家庭捕获黄胸鼠数量下降63％。结论黄胸鼠丰盛度高低与周围生态环境因素有密切关系。疫区为达到预防和控制鼠疫的最佳效果，须考虑影响黄胸鼠丰盛度的生态环境因素。

Objective To explore-the predictors on the abundance of Rattus （R.） tanezumi in households of commensal rodent plague loci. Methods Thirty natural villages that experienced previous plague cases in Lianghe county, Yunnan province, were selected followed by random selection of 20 households in each village through computer technique. Live traps were set in households to capture small mammals which were then identified to species in the field according to their morphological features. Data on potential factors for abundance of R. tanezumi were collected through questionnaires and field observation and were coded and computerized using EpiData software and further analyzed by hurdle regression model under R software. Results A total of 166 rodents （ 133 R. tanezumi and 33 Suncus murinus） were captured. Results from final multilevel hurdle regression model showed that the likelihood of R. tanezumi captures increased by 1.67- to 2.76-fold in households belonged to Dai ethnic families that stored foodstuff in metal pails, often raising dogs, and having adjacent houses. The number of R. tanezumi captures increased by 2.18-fold in the villages where over 80% of the households would raise chickens. In the villages with communal latrine, the likelihood and the number of R. tanezumi capture increased 1.93-fold and 2.38-fold, respectively. While the likelihood of R. tanezumi captures would reduce by 45%-61% in those households where there were cats and cattle being raised and maize grown in the village. The number of R. tanezumi captures would reduce by 63% in the households where there were outside toilets. Conclusion The abundance of R. tanezumi seemed to be closely related to the ecological environment factors. Programs on plague control and prevention should relate to ecological factors that influencing the abundance of R. tanezumi.