货币危机理论评析

A Theoretical Survey on Currency Crisis

对投机者攻击一国的货币导致固定汇率体系解体的机理 ,理论界提出了货币危机的第一代模型、道德风险模型、货币危机的第二代模型、流动性危机模型和货币危机的羊群行为模型等五种最有影响的理论解释 ,前两种理论认为货币危机是由危机发生国实际经济恶化引发的 ,后三种解释则认为这是一种与实际经济无关的多重均衡现象。这几种理论都是具体针对过去几十年中在拉美 ,特别是欧洲和亚洲爆发的货币危机而提出的 ,这些理论很好地对每一个具体事件做出了解释 ,但缺乏一种能在一个更有普遍意义的时代背景下超越各个具体事件的更为一般的理论解释框架。

There are five influential theoretical explanations on the currency crisis: the first generation theory on the currency crisis, the moral hazard theory, the second generation theory, the liquidity crisis model, the herding behavior model. The first two of them argue that the fundamental weaknesses are the causes that invite the attack of currency speculators and lead to the collapse of a peg exchange regime. While the remainders consider it is a bad result of multiple equilibrium that is irrelevant to the real aspects of the economy. All the five theories are developed from the events that mainly happened in the Latin American countries, Europe and East Asian during the past 20 years. Although each of them has explained some important aspects particular well, a comprehensive theoretical framework is absent and to be developed that can explain the currency crisis phenomenon beyond particular events and across the different theoretical frameworks.