电力负荷预测的遗传规划方法

GENETIC PROGRAMMING FOR POWER SYSTEM LOAD FORECASTING

用遗传规划法建立负荷预测的数学模型。遗传规划法是模拟生物进化过程的一种搜索寻优方法 ,其实质是用能根据环境状况动态改变的广义的层次化计算机程序描述问题。在负荷预报应用中 ,遗传规划法能自动找出与负荷变化密切相关的因素 ,用其作为自变量 ,生成函数表达式来体现负荷的变化规律 ,建立负荷预报模型。通过实例计算并与传统预报方法相比较 。

A new methodology based on genetic programming (GP) for power system load forecasting is presented. GP.simulating the evolution of living beings. uses the computer program which can change length and structure according toenvironment to describe the problem. The task of GP is to find the program reflecting the essence of the problem. In the useof load forecasting. GP can automatically find out the important factors which are closely related to the load. Using thesefactors as independent variables, genetic programming creates a function expression to reflect the law of the variations ofload. The result of computation example shows that the method is effective.