产业非对称开放对产业全要素生产率增长率的影响——对中国第二、三产业的实证研究

The Influences of Asymmetric Industrial Opening to Industrial Total Factor Productivity Growth Rate——The Empirical Research based on China's Secondary Industry and Tertiary Industry

为了研究我国经济部门选择性对外开放与产业全要素生产率增长率的关系,本文采用1992～2010年的时间序列数据建立VAR模型,考察了第二、三产业对外开放度与产业全要素生产率增长率的关系。实证结果表明,我国第二产业的对外开放对第二产业的全要素生产率增长率短期内有促进作用,但是长期影响是抑制性的;第三产业的对外开放对第三产业的全要素生产率增长率有促进作用。本文同时发现,第三产业全要素生产率增长率的自我提升作用较为显著,而第二产业全要素生产率增长率的自我提升作用不确定。

Since reforming and opening, due to undertake the transler of inousmes from developed countries, the manufacturing industry in our country embedded in the highly modular in the global production networks actively or passively with a advantage of low cost. And then the manufacturing industry became the low module manufactur-ing base in the international industry chain dominated by Multi-National Corporations, and demonstrated a high de-gree of opening to the outside world, take highly use of its comparative advantages. But on the other hand, by rel-ying on the higher institutional barriers and strict protection policy, the opening degree of the service industry in our country, especially the producer services industry, is still staying in a comparatively low level, which reflects the comparative disadvantage of our country. The asymmetric opening of the second industry and the tertiary industry is formed according to the factor endowment and comparative advantage twenty or thirty years ago, which promote the economic growth of our country. However, the factor endowment and comparative advantage of our country have changed, and it is still unknown if the change will lead to asymmetric opening＇ s influence on the economic devel-opment. At the same time, the manufacturing industry is locked in the low value-added processing section in increasing degree, and get in the so-called ＂modularization trap＂. The design, R＆D and marketing ability of china＇ s manu-facturing industry tends to degenerate because their dependence on the cost competition in a long term, and also in-duced the high consumption and high pollution which are closely related with this division pattern. While the short-age of service industry＇ s opening degree reduced the access to technology spillover opportunities, the backward service industry can＇ t provide strong support for the manufacturing industry to participate in the international divi-sion of labor, so it can only attend the processing section which slightly depend on the service industry, and lack of competitiveness in the planning, research and development, logistics, marketing and other sections which can＇ t develop without producer service industry. Therefore, in order to research the relationship between China＇ s economic sectors＇ selective opening and in-dustrial total factor productivity growth rate. This paper calculated the total factor productivity growth rate of the second industry and the tertiary industry from 1992 to 2010 by the use of Solow residual method, and used the log-arithm of the ratio of total import and export of the second industry to the tertiary industry and industrial added value to represent the opening degree, and established the VAR model on the base of the data of the total factor produc-tivity growth and industry opening degree from 1992 to 2010, and analyzed the relationship between the opening de-gree of the second industry and the tertiary industry and the growth rate of the total factor productivity. The empirical result shows that the secondary industrial opening-up promotes the secondary industry total factor productivity growth rate in a short term, but restrains it in a long term. The tertiary industrial opening-up promotes the tertiary industry total factor productivity growth rate both in a short term and a long term. In the meanwhile, we also can find that the self-improvement effect of the tertiary industry total factor productivity growth rate is compara- tively prominent. That is to say, the improvement of skill level influences more obviously on skill level enhancement than the opening-up. However, the self-improvement effect is still uncertain on the second industry. This is very different from the view held by many scholars who take the third tertiary industry as a ＂stagnant industry＂ with low technical progress rate. Certainly, this paper＇s analysis results may be related to the fact that the tertiary industry development lags behind and technical progress space is greater than the second industry. Any-how, this conclusion＇ s policy meaning is ： In the next stage of opening, the focus of China＇ s opening policy should gradually turn to the tertiary industry from the second industry. By opening to the outside world and introducing competition mechanism, China can absorb more high-level talents and speed up the development of the tertiary in-dustry to fully develop the tertiary industry＇ s technology progress potential, to establish a new comparative advanta-ges gradually in tertiary industry, so that the tertiary industry can replace the second industry to become the new source of future economic increase and the leading industry of national economy. Besides, the manufacturing indus-try also should moderately separate itself from the global value chain dominated by western Multi-National Corpora-tions. It should more rely on the domestic market and the national value chain （ NVC）, try to extend to ends of the global value chain, and obtain sustainable development ability depending on the improvement of design, brand mar-keting and fine manufacturing.