通胀预测、不确定性与先行指标体系的构建

Inflation forecasts,Uncertainty and Construction of Our System of Leading Indicators

高通货膨胀不仅带来严重的社会成本,其导致的高通货膨胀不确定性还可能推高未来的通货膨胀水平,我国货币政策的滞后期较长,合理预测将有利于通货膨胀的有效管理。尝试在对Phillips曲线改进的基础上,建立我国通货膨胀预测的理论模型。以此为基础推衍出货币经济指标、生产价格指标和资产价格指标三类通货膨胀预测的先行指标,三类指标的预测先行期依次递减,由此构建出我国通货膨胀预测的多层次先行指标体系。该指标体系对于政府制定有关宏观经济政策、管理通货膨胀有重要指导意义。

High inflation increases social cost and its uncertainty is possibly makes higher inflation lev-el. Meanwhile, the lag of money policy is longer so inflation forecast is helpful for its management. In this paper, we improve the Philips Curve and build theoretical model of China＇ s inflation forecast, so to get three types of leading indicators as money index, product price index and asset price index and con-struct multi-layer leading indicator system of inflation forecast in China, and this indicator system is helpful to make maeroeeonomic policy and manage inflation.