摘要
许多西方文献研究认为房价从长期看由经济基本面决定,并通过均衡价格理论进行了论证。但本文利用1998～2010年中国房地产季度统计数据分析,发现我国房价与经济基本面缺乏稳定的协整关系;我国房地产价格趋势偏离了局部均衡分析的均衡价格,且房价供求决定方程发生了结构性改变。中国特殊的房地产市场,尤其是受土地政策和心理预期因素影响,很大程度上逼近于一种投机品市场。本文以资源经济学中著名的霍太林法则为基础建立模型,计量分析发现,从阶段特征看心理预期对房价有显著的正向影响;土地供给和房屋租价比、银行利率对房价有显著的负向影响,并提出相应的政策建议。
Many western papers argue that housing prices depend on economic fundamentals in the long term and prove such conclusion via the Equilibrium Price Theory. This paper analyzes China＇s real estate quarterly statistical data between 1998 and 2010. On this basis, the paper argues that there is a lack of stable cointegration relationship between China＇s housing prices and economic fundamentals. China＇s real estate price trend departures from the equilibrium price of partial equilibrium analysis. A structural change occurs in the supply and demand equation of housing prices. Due to the land policy, psychological expectation and other factors, the real estate market in China is so distorted that it appears a speculative product market to a great extent. With the model based on the famous Hotelling Rule of resource economics, the paper makes an econometric analysis and points out that both the positive impact of psychological expectation on housing prices and the negative impact of land supply, housing rental price ratio and bank interest rate on housing prices are significant from the perspective of phase characteristics. The paper puts forward the corresponding policy suggestions.
出处
《税务研究》
CSSCI
北大核心
2013年第2期48-52,共5页
