强化现金分红政策是在迎合投资者么——来自中国内地和台湾的经验证据

Does Strengthening the Cash Dividend Policy Cater to Investors? Empirical Evidences from China's Mainland and Taiwan

基于中国内地和台湾两大新兴市场的股票数据,利用Fama-MacBeth时间序列横截面回归法来验证强化现金分红政策对股票收益率的影响,发现现金红利溢价在中国台湾股市中存在,即强化现金分红政策具有合理性;现金红利溢价在中国内地股市不存在,即强化现金分红政策欠缺合理性。同时还发现两个市场在萧条市场中的现金红利溢价都存在,且大于繁荣市场中的现金红利溢价;股利信号理论和代理成本理论不能解释该现象,而"一鸟在手"理论能够解释该现象。因此,强化分红政策在中国内地股票市场中仅仅是迎合了投资者短期需求,具有短期合理性;而在长期,合理性欠缺。

Based on the stock data of the two major emerging markets in Chinese Mainland and Taiwan, this study makes use of the Farna-MacBeth time series cross-sectional regression method to verify the impact of strengthening the cash dividend policy on stock returns. The results show that cash bonus premium exists in the Taiwan stock markets, i.e. it is reasonable to strengthen the cash dividend policy; while cash dividend premium does not exist in the stock markets of Chinese main- land, i.e. to strengthen the cash dividend policy is not rational. At the same time, it is found that the cash dividend premium exists in both of the two markets when they fall into depressed markets, and the cash dividend premium is greater than that in the prosperous markets. The dividend signaling the- ory and the agency cost theory cannot explain the phenomenon, while the ＂A bird in the hand＂ theory can. Therefore, to strengthen the dividend policy in Chinese stock markets can cater to the short-term needs of investors with short-term rationality; while in the long-term, it lacks of rationality.