人民币汇率不完全传递的行业差异——引入贸易附加值的分析

The Industrial Differences of Incomplete Transmission of RMB Exchange Rate: An Analysis Based on Introduction of Trade Added Value

全球生产网络中,出口行业的贸易附加值水平是影响汇率出口传递效应的重要变量,附加值越大,汇率出口传递效应越明显;附加值越小,汇率出口传递效应越不完全。在我国大部分出口行业附加值水平偏低的情况下,汇率波动将通过进口中间产品的成本变化显著削弱我国出口产品的价格波动,最终造成汇率的不完全传递。由于各行业贸易附加值的不同,这种不完全汇率传递效应在贸易附加值较低的技术密集型产业表现最为明显,其次是劳动密集型产品,最后是资源密集型产品。

In the global production network, the level of the trade added value is the significant variable affecting the export transmission effect of exchange rate. The more the trade added value, the higher the transmission effects. The less the trade added value, the more incomplete the transmission effects. In the context of lower trade added value in most China＇ s export industries, the exchange rate fluctuation will heavily weaken the price fluctuation of China＇ s export products through the cost changes of the imported intermediate products, which finally results in the incomplete transmission of exchange rates. Due to the differences of trade added value in each industry, this incomplete transmis- sion effect of exchange rate can be found most remarkably in the technology-intensive industries with lower trade added value, followed by the labor-intensive industries, and the last is resource-intensive industries.